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Despite all that is going on in the world (wars, inflation, natural disasters, & Taylor Swift’s latest album), Stock Markets around the world have just continued on their merry way seemingly oblivious to everything.
The Presidential Cycle is a four-year cycle where the US Stock Market seems to make similar returns in each of the four years. I.e. We compare all the years of the election (2020, 2016, 2012…) and the results seem to align.
A few years ago I picked up an old copy of a book by Michael Gur called The Symmetry Wave Trading Method. Gur introduced the concept of using a series of swings based on the Average True Range of a chart, or the ATR.
Learn about the importance of the real estate cycle and the global economy in Akil Patel's new book.
The January Barometer is an investing theory that suggests that the performance of the stock market in the month of January can be used to predict the performance of the stock market for the rest of the year. According to the theory – first posited by Yale Hirsch in 1972 - if the stock market rises in January, then it is likely to rise for the rest of the year.
Did Covid-19 cause this mess? What comes next? Phil Anderson explores this in terms of the 18.6 year Real Estate Cycle. This could be one of the most important posts you read in these volatile times.
The last couple of weeks has been tough (unless you’re short S&P futures!). In this article we look back at previous crashes to see what we can expect to happen next.
Since the recovery from the lows in December 2018 the market has been \"overbought\" - which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
A quantitative look at what happens when the S&P500 index sets new all-time highs.
For the last couple of years I’ve routinely stated how important dealing with survivorship bias is in testing. I hope you agree with me that it’s a critical issue that makes it nearly impossible to run a historical test and then being able to repeat those results in the future.
Correlations are an important tool in portfolio construction. But are you aware of the dangers that nearly every analyst ignores? In this post we will review what correlations are, how it can be used to diversify risk and what the dangers are that you have to be aware of.
Maintaining a trading journal, while not a new concept, has evolved over the years, from a pen and pad, to detailed portfolio logs of every entry and exit made.
I am the first to admit that I ignored Bitcoin (and other crypto-currencies) for too long. The first time I really paid any attention was back in October 2017 when Bitcoin just broke $5,000.
Although this article is focused on Entry Triggers for trade initiation, the successful trader knows that Entry Triggers are just one component of success.
In this paper we test the results of buying securities that have been outperforming the market. We are told two rules in finance: “Buy Low and Sell High” and also “Past Performance is not a guarantee of Future Returns”.
The subjective works of WD Gann from the early part of the twentieth century are not normally associated with one of the modern pillars of twenty first century Technical Analysis, Market Breadth.
Favorable risk-adjusted returns can be, at times, as difficult to attain as a porcupine in a balloon factory. Forces are constantly at work to ensure that neither of these occurs. What follows will outline an emerging solution for forecasting technical price and volatility value levels.
Charles Dow was concerned with managing returns in a context of risk. His process required identifying and confirming trends. He was aware the market trends were influenced by economics as well as behavioral biases.
In this paper, we explore if a set of securities on the RRG, which is benchmarked against an index that is made up of only those securities can be balanced on the X and Y axis. The results once we include Market Capitalisation are amazing.
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