Bear On Vacation? – Update
By mid-May, a death cross signal and its bearish implications made its way into financial news’ limelight. Being both curious and sceptical—and a bit of a mythbuster at heart—I felt compelled to dig in.
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Signal Testing 2
In this session we continue our exploration into the Optuma Signal Tester and how you can use it to build better strategies. We also have a look at Profits and Targets to see what effect they really have. We talk about the dangers of tradition backtesting from a quantitative point of view.
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Avoiding Blowups with Monte-Carlo
A very powerful—but little used—technique called Monte Carlo Simulation (MC) can help simulate what to expect in real life to see if our signal is robust. Let’s explore where Monte Carlo came from…
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Lies, Damned Lies, and Average Returns
We’re told that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. As I’ve been focused so heavily on Signal Testing throughout 2016, I’ve been learning more and more about average returns. I now realise that this statement should be “Lies, Damned Lies, and Average Returns”. In this post I explain why the humble average is such a dangerous number for system builders and investors.
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Beating the Investment Roller Coaster
As investors and traders, at times we are often our own worst enemy. Almost everyone, even the greats, will concede that investing can be an emotional rollercoaster. Many of these greats have also come to the understanding that containing emotions is critical to success.
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